New York Times July 13, 2024
BRET STEPHENS, “Republicans Will Regret a Second Trump Term”
Reading this article from the New York Times this morning, I agreed with a lot of the premise. Republicans will regret a second Trump term. We all will. They do not really understand what they are in for if he wins. This is no surprise, Republicans, since the election of Obama, have had a shocking inability to anticipate any consequences of their actions. The destruction of Roe (Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization) is the poster child of this but there are innumerable other examples.
Stephens’ three things in a new Trump term:
First, Trump won’t slay the left; instead, he will re-energize and radicalize it.
Second, Trump will be a down-ballot loser, leading to divided and paralyzed government.
Third, Trump’s second-term personnel won’t be like the ones in his first.
These three things are probably true. The first Trump term showed that protesting is alive and well in America again. He notes this almost all stopped when Biden took office. The second, true also, as Trump is a disaster on down ballot candidates since he only supports sycophant who go out of their way to be crazier-than-thou.
Third is a loaded statement. Most of Trump’s first term advisors are now felons, convicted or pardoned or should have been like Barr who lied to congress and most of the others who defied congressional subpoenas like Jim Jordan. The few that claim after the fact that they were the adults in the room and stopped him from shooting immigrants and protestors should be much more disgraced than they are. The new breed of Trump advisor will have no qualms about implementing the worse case scenario of immigrant or protestor policy.
So far, not bad.
Stephens is missing the largest problem of all. The thing Republicans—all of us in fact—will regret most: Trump has immunity. Stephens believes the down ballot issue will stop the implementation of the Project 2025 fascist manifesto. This business-as-usual approach to a second Trump term is blind, wishful, and may have destructively dire consequences for the country, individuals, groups, the economy, etc. etc.
Let’s say Trump wins the Presidency but the Senate remains in Democratic hands by a slim margin as now and Republicans lose four seats in the House giving Democrats a slim majority. Hakeem Jeffries becomes Speaker of the House.
Gridlock for sure. Congress cannot get anything passed signed by Trump and they cannot get a supermajority to override Trump’s veto. Ok, nothing new here. With short exceptions, Obama’s first two years and Biden’s first two years, this has been a do-nothing congress. Under Trump they managed to get trillions in tax cuts for the rich and McConnell managed to get lots of judges approved including three for the Supreme Court that have proven to be a corrupt disaster personally, legislative, judicially anti-constitutional, and self-serving (I add Clarence Thomas here though not a Trump/Mconnell nominee).
Stephens says, “… like many conservatives, I don’t think Trump is strong or smart enough to blow down the pillars of American institutional life.” I think it is easy to disregard Trump’s brains because of the gibberish he spouts all the time. I also think his new advisors are not naive like the original ones. Trump will do anything to make money. As long as his advisors couch things in a way where Trump gains, he will agree and implement anything they say. Trump also has an innate ability that his stupidity hides. People get complacent, assuming he could not accomplish anything, and then he surprises everyone. Somehow, he is a master of being underrated until he cuts you.
Here is a scenario: Trump impeached again.
The House is likely to try to impeach Trump again. As corrupt as the man is, all things proposed in terms of Trump gain by his advisors, it will be no surprise. After all, he is in this for the immunity and the money. But what about presidential immunity (Trump v. United States). The Supreme Court has said he has every right to interfere and direct the Department of Justice. This ruling is contrary to every Presidential norm since the establishment of the DOJ in 1870. Previous attempts to interfere, like Nixon and the Saturday night massacre, have failed to accomplish the aims of the President involved—at least in my lifetime. What is to stop Trump from ordering the FBI to arrest Hakeem Jeffries and three other Representatives on trumped up conspiracy charges? You may think, well the Democrats still have a technical majority. I confess to not knowing how votes are done when Reps are absent. I assume, as long as there is a quorum, the vote goes ahead and whoever is there is counted. In this case the house is now essentially Republican as four Democrats are not able to attend, I do not think proxies are allowed in congressional floor voting.
Let’s say, for fun, that proxies are allowed. There is now nothing to stop Trump from assassinating four Democrats in the House of Representatives. This would make four seats vacant in the House. The state Governors get to choose replacement Representatives. Trump could threaten to order the DOJ to investigate these Governors if they do not appoint Republican replacements. This interference with the DOJ is now legal according to the Supreme Court (Trump v. United States).
But you are thinking; assassination is illegal! And you would have been correct up to July 1, 2024 (Trump v United States) when the Supreme Court ruled that Presidents are not liable to prosecution for official acts and prosecutors cannot use the official act itself as evidence in court. (An aside: Stephens does not even mention immunity in this op ed. Republicans do not want to talk about it generally. They know the ruling is dangerous, but power is the goal and that will give it to them—until Trump decides they are disloyal of course.) As long as he orders the assassination as an official act it is not illegal for him. He could do that in several ways: He could order them killed because they are insurrectionists, he could declare martial law and order Seal Team 6 in, he could hint at the idea and hope one of his advisors runs with it. (Needed: G. Gordon Liddy (Nixon), Roger Stone (Nixon and Trump), or Oliver North (Reagan) version 2025).
He could do this with Judges, Governors, and regular citizens that speak out as well. He has already promised to prosecute the media and all his opponents. Republicans of course do not understand that this includes them when Trump decides they have not sufficiently genuflected to him. Why would he stop? Project 2025 is a clear indication that Trump’s new advisors and cabinet will stop at nothing to make sure they stay in power. The courts as we see are amazingly slow in providing any form of justice pertaining to rich white men. Trump will not see sentencing in his New York conviction (a case of events from 2016) now until September and Trump will surely appeal any decision the state makes to the Trump Supreme Court. The other trials will not happen even if Trump looses until well into 2025 if ever. Remember Iran-Contra under Reagan? The events of the affaire ended around 1985 and the convictions happened in 1992. Neither Regan nor Bush (the VP) were charged.
There may be one saving grace, one that has saved the country many times: most people will do the right thing. I know this seems hard to believe in the current media climate but it is still true. Trump’s wildest suggestions of shooting immigrants and protestors did not happen. When Nixon tried to get rid of the Special Prosecutor, Archibald Cox, everyone else resigned first. Even when Trump tried to replace the Attorney General on January 6th, he was stopped by everyone threatening to resign. As I write my brain screams—that was those advisors, but the Project 2025 advisors have learned from that failure to overthrow the country.
In short it all comes down to voting. I hope women will save the world again by voting on one issue—Their own personal health autonomy and abortion rights. If they do, Republicans will lose all over the country, Trump will go away and maybe we can have a normal US Presidential race in 2028—not that ‘normal’ ones have been any type of ideal.
Historical note: Trump was shot in the ear last night in Pennsylvania. Shooter and one other person died.
Hark 