Originally November 2016 Revised August 2021
Well, it is now August 2021 and Trump is gone from the white house. Wondering how I did with my predictions. I will put the current comments in italics.
Well now we have it. A number of possibilities arise and this is only the first attempt to put them down. One can hope that Trump is a good salesman and that the rhetoric was only manipulation and that sanity will be the reality. Certainly not the reality. If so, the problem is stopping the people who do not know they were being manipulated. Like all of the candidates for President the Republicans have put forth in the last sixteen years, or so, they have to be crazy to get the nomination and then try to act normal for the general election–Trump turned this on its head by being crazy the entire time and proving this to be a winning strategy. This is not actually to ignore the problem of Clinton (I did say she should not have run because she has too much baggage years before she ever announced) running but this post is about Trump’s Presidency.
Some predictions: The affordable care act will be destroyed. This was in fact a systematic attempt by republicans throughout the term. The Republican Senate had two goals and only accomplished one, massive tax cut for the rich and corporations. All attempts by republicans to destroy the ACA failed though they did hurt it a lot. Here is an article from NPR in 2019, Trump Is Trying Hard To Thwart Obamacare. How’s That Going?, https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2019/10/14/768731628/trump-is-trying-hard-to-thwart-obamacare-hows-that-going. Twenty million Americans will lose health care coverage including the ones that need it that voted and supported Trump throughout. Insurance premiums for those who still have coverage will increase at a greater rate than they ever did under the ACA. As far as I know the ACA itself had a massive increase in insurance rates but I suspect this was mostly for those that could afford it according to the system to supplement those who could not. I do not know what happened ultimately now the Trump is out of the white house.
Hate crimes will increase over the next six months because the rhetoric was all about hate, for Hillary, Blacks, Hispanics, Muslims, and Women. These crimes have been “justified” by the American people–the law of unintended consequences? This turned out to be true. The FBI says the increase was near 20% according to some articles.
The oil and gas industry will reverse any environmental gains achieved over the last eight years. Interesting that this got pushback from the car industry against Trump. Massive tax breaks for the industry and a Congress that is beholden to big special interests on a blatant and outspoken way. Those industries stocks are up this morning. This was true. The only thing the majority republican congress accomplished was the 1.7 trillion-dollar tax cut for the rich and corporations. Corporations bought back stock to increase its value and did not help the economy.
The tax cuts for the rich that will be given will increase the disaster that has hit the middle and lower classes. This is partly true as the tax breaks benefit was estimated to amount to between 2 and 6 dollars per month for the middle class. Even conservative think-tanks predicted a five trillion dollar increase in the national debt using Trump’s tax plan. The Washington Post puts the increase in the debt at 7.8 trillion over one term. This is the usual result, though predicted to be higher than normal, for Republican Presidents. The problem is the people harmed most by these cuts will be the poor whites that supported him most. There was a slight increase in wages on the average at the beginning of the term. I do not know if this was maintained or increased overall. Some indication seems to be that the rate of increase has slowed since 2007, or, should I say, been below the Federal Reserve goal.
A Trump administration will be filled with scandal which will continue throughout. This is an understatement. The number of indictments and convictions was staggering. The number of Trump advisors who were paid by foreign entities, usually Easter European, was amazing with investigations and indictments still happening on a weekly basis. Never before has this been so widespread and it is not over as I write. His personal lawyer and other lawyers that have supported him have been disbarred and face large lawsuits for libel. This month nine more of his lawyers have been recommended by a Federal Judge to face disbarment for election related issues. His corporation is now under indictment. There are investigations into his followers and into his election fraud attempts. First, he will force the IRS to stop investigating his finances. He is till stalling on this one, though he is trying to stop Congress and two Federal Attorneys General. He has managed to keep most of his tax returns secret to date but this is still in the courts. He will out Nixon Nixon by using the CIA, FBI, Secret Service, and the IRS to attack those that do not do what he wants. Some of this was true. He certainly corrupted the justice department and undermined the CIA, NSA, and FBI. Nixon’s philosophy was do unto them before they do unto me, and Trump shows every sign that this will be his philosophy. He even had an enemies list.
In normal American fashion, with only one exception I remember, the People will vote in a Democratic Congress in two years. Not quite, they did vote in a democratic house in the mid-term and then once the term was up voted in a democratic president, black/Indian woman VP in Kamala Harris and a majority in the house and very slight majority in the senate. Impeachment hearings will begin in Trump’s third term if any of the Nixonian governing methods are accomplished as predicted above. To be sure he was impeached the first time in 2019 (in short soliciting foreign interference in the election from the Ukraine) and again in 2021 (for, in short, inciting a riot to take over the congress and end the election ballot count). The senate was republican in both cases so the impeachment did not result in any sort of censure or removal from office. Two in one term is saying a lot .
More to come I am sure.
Overall, that is pretty good predicting. He did try to overthrow the government and is still trying. Claiming, most recently on August 13th, that he would be president again since he seems to believe he never lost. This is supported by most republicans in congress. Last I heard 480 people are under indictment for invading the capital to “stop the steel” after being encouraged by Trump and other republicans.
Hark 